ຜະເດັດການ ສປປ ລາວ ບໍ່ໄດ້ “ຕິດກັບດັກໜີ້ຈີນ” ແຕ່ກຳລັງຈະມີປັນຫາ ຫລາຍກ່ວານັ້ນ
Laos Is Not in a Chinese ‘Debt Trap’ – But It Is in Trouble
Laos is disturbingly reliant on investment from China – and no one knows how much, and under what terms.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) turns 10 this year. Much ink has been spilled, digitally and otherwise, about the global infrastructure project. The “debt-trap diplomacy” claims that arose in the mid 2010s, as China ramped up its lending to low and middle-income countries, seems to have mostly dissipated, thanks to repeated debunking by scholars. Those claims have been replaced by more nuanced and valid concerns about the terms of China’s loans.
For instance, Laos, the only landlocked country in Southeast Asia, has alarms going off: public and publicly-guaranteed debt was $14.5 billion, 89 percent of GDP by the end of 2021, and is likely over 100 percent of GDP by now. China is Laos’ largest creditor, accounting for nearly half of all its external public debt. China has allowed some debt deferment, providing some temporary relief. But with large investments with long time horizons and obscure contracts from Chinese state-owned enterprises in critical infrastructure, Laos has made the decision to tightly tie the future of its economic development to its neighbor to the north.